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Abstract The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available. 

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses cross species barriers and have the potential to cause pandemics. In North America, HPAI A(H5N1) viruses related to the goose/Guangdong 2.3.4.4b hemagglutinin phylogenetic clade have infected wild birds, poultry, and mammals. Our genomic analysis and epidemiological investigation showed that a reassortment event in wild bird populations preceded a single wild bird–to-cattle transmission episode. The movement of asymptomatic or presymptomatic cattle has likely played a role in the spread of HPAI within the United States dairy herd. Some molecular markers that may lead to changes in transmission efficiency and phenotype were detected at low frequencies. Continued transmission of H5N1 HPAI within dairy cattle increases the risk for infection and subsequent spread of the virus to human populations. 

ABSTRACT Between 2013 and 2018, the novel A/Anhui/1/2013 (AH/13)-lineage H7N9 virus caused at least five waves of outbreaks in humans, totaling 1,567 confirmed human cases in China. Surveillance data indicated a disproportionate distribution of poultry infected with this AH/13-lineage virus, and laboratory experiments demonstrated that this virus can efficiently spread among chickens but not among Pekin ducks. The underlying mechanism of this selective transmission remains unclear. In this study, we demonstrated the absence of Neu5Gc expression in chickens across all respiratory and gastrointestinal tissues. However, Neu5Gc expression varied among different duck species and even within the tissues of the same species. The AH/13-lineage viruses exclusively bind to acetylneuraminic acid (Neu5Ac), in contrast to wild waterbird H7 viruses that bind both Neu5Ac and N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc). The level of Neu5Gc expression influences H7 virus replication and facilitates adaptive mutations in these viruses. In summary, our findings highlight the critical role of Neu5Gc in affecting the host range and interspecies transmission dynamics of H7 viruses among avian species.IMPORTANCEMigratory waterfowl, gulls, and shorebirds are natural reservoirs for influenza A viruses (IAVs) that can occasionally spill over to domestic poultry, and ultimately humans. This study showed wild-type H7 IAVs from waterbirds initially bind to glycan receptors terminated with N-acetylneuraminic acid (Neu5Ac) or N-glycolylneuraminic acid (Neu5Gc). However, after enzootic transmission in chickens, the viruses exclusively bind to Neu5Ac. The absence of Neu5Gc expression in gallinaceous poultry, particularly chickens, exerts selective pressure, shaping IAV populations, and promoting the acquisition of adaptive amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin protein. This results in the loss of Neu5Gc binding and an increase in virus transmissibility in gallinaceous poultry, particularly chickens. Consequently, the transmission capability of these poultry-adapted H7 IAVs in wild water birds decreases. Timely intervention, such as stamping out, may help reduce virus adaptation to domestic chicken populations and lower the risk of enzootic outbreaks, including those caused by IAVs exhibiting high pathogenicity.